Will Organic Produce take over?
It was not that long ago that Organic fruits and vegetables filled a niche on the grocer’s shelf. Often it was tucked away in the corner of the produce department and visited only by weird looking people wearing shabby clothes. It was as if organics were their own little secret or maybe they were victims of some grand government conspiracy. Either way, they were too expensive, looked to be poor quality and could not possibly be in any way superior to the perfect looking fruits and vegetables on the conventional counter. After all fruits and vegetables are inherently good, how could they be improved upon? And so it went for many years for the organic industry making small monetary gains by selling expensive, poor looking produce to their legion of weird looking customers.
But then something happened. It wasn’t overnight or anything, but there was a change. Around the turn of the new millennium 
a large generation of soon to be consumption hogs were born. And these “millennials” loved organics. Soon, the small monetary gains representing double and triple digit year over year growth became large monetary gains (math has a way of sneaking up on you). Fast forward to current times and organic produce is a force to be reckoned with. Just about everyone claims to be at least an “occasional” organics buyer. They’ll tell you that it’s worth it to pay a premium price for more natural foods. Plus, with nearly one out of every ten produce dollars going towards organics, companies like Whole Foods, Nature’s Emporium and other “organics first” retailers are darlings of the grocery industry. Could it be though that the very success they waited so patiently to achieve may in the end be their undoing?
The demographic changes that became the driving force behind the meteoric growth of organic fruits and vegetables have not completed their marketplace transformation. In fact, the youngest of the millennials are barely old enough to drive, let alone dictate the contents of the weekly grocery basket. With double digit growth projections for the foreseeable future, how long before nearly ten percent penetration becomes nearly twenty percent and then how long before it reache
s forty percent? The answer is 2031 by the way, at current growth projections. Perhaps it was these exact numbers that discount giant Aldi saw when they decided to include organic produce in their US operations last year. Or perhaps it was the expected arrival of Lidl, another German based discount grocery store with a formidable organics range.
Either way, with demand continuously growing, coupled with increasing supplies, it’s not hard to imagine a time in the not too distant future when organic fruits and vegetables are displayed in the same quantities, with the same assortment as conventional produce. And as supplies rise, allowing for economies of scale, combined with the firestorm of agricultural innovation, cost parity could be a reasonable assumption. So then, an insatiable demand, kept at bay with improving growing techniques and no cost disadvantages, the future looks bright for organics. Perhaps too bright. If organics are going to be this good, what is the rationale for conventional produce? Are we heading towards a singularity? Are we just around the corner from a time when neither organic nor conventional produce exists? In this scenario, all that would be available is produce. It just so happens this produce will not have been grown using synthetic fertilizers, herbicides, or pesticides. Not organic, not conventional, just produce.
In this “alternate future” what becomes of Whole Foods and Nature’s Emporium? With no “less natural” fruits and vegetables to compare themselves to; how do they compete? Perhaps “Fairly Traded” or “Sustainable” will allow these once darlings of the grocery scene to recapture their past glory by offering expensive produce to weird looking people once again.
